It’s coming. If China and North Korea can block the internet, so can Russia. Yes there’s VPN, but China is continually threatening to block VPN and also sometimes imposing fines. The latest internet security laws in 2017 not only ban VPNs but are quite specific about source code inspections of foreign code, retention of China data within China, responsibility of platforms to censor content, banning of anonymous accounts etc.
As the technology to censor the internet develops, any other government with sufficient budget can also implement it. Title image from article: http://thehackernews.com/2017/07/russian-ban-proxy-vpn-tor.html
India is also trying to block, so with China that is already a very significant proportion of the world population without counting Vietnam, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Bahrain, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Ethiopia..
United States: still ‘free’ in terms of access, but the industrial level surveillance and direct access of US government agencies to the networks of major US service providers are now well known, so it is to be expected that more countries will want to protect the privacy of their citizens by not allowing them to use the services of certain US companies.
In 20 years from now how will we look back on today? A brief period where it seemed like the whole world was going to be connected? A lawless Wild West interlude?